Service Plays Sunday 10/25/09

Can'tPickaWinner2 · Oct 22, 2009

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icethekicker · Oct 23, 2009

SportsbookExpert Picks

10/25 Indianapolis -13 -110 @ St. Louis
10/25 Green Bay -6.5 -110 @ Cleveland
10/25 Pittsburgh -4 -110 vs. Minnesota
10/25 New York AFC -6 -110 @ Oakland
10/25 New York NFC -6.5 -120 vs. Arizona
10/26 Philadelphia -7 -110 @ Washington

newty81 · Oct 23, 2009

NFL Play

Here is Ness' NFL 26* play...sorry to post here, could somebody move it to Sunday when that thread comes up? Thanks & Good Luck to All.

Larry Ness 26* NFL Play:

Sunday, October 25, 2009
1:00 PM (EST)
Pick:
Pittsburgh - 4.5 hosting Minnesota
Reason:
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ther; mso-font-pitch:variable; mso-font-signature:0 0 0 0 0 0;} @font-face {font-family:Calibri; panose-1:2 15 5 2 2 2 4 3 2 4; mso-font-charset:0; mso-generic-font-family:swiss; mso-font-pitch:variable; mso-font-signature:-1610611985 1073750139 0 0 159 0;} /* Style Definitions */ p.MsoNormal, li.MsoNormal, div.MsoNormal {mso-style-unhide:no; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; margin-top:0in; margin-right:0in; margin-bottom:10.0pt; margin-left:0in; line-height:115%; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;} .MsoChpDefault {mso-style-type:export-only; mso-default-props:yes; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;} .MsoPapDefault {mso-style-type:export-only; margin-bottom:10.0pt; line-height:115%;} @page Section1 {size:8.5in 11.0in; margin:1.0in 1.0in 1.0in 1.0in; mso-header-margin:.5in; mso-footer-margin:.5in; mso-paper-source:0;} div.Section1 {page:Section1;} --> </style>The Vikings almost blew a 27-10 4th-quarter lead against the Ravens last Sunday but came back to take a 33-31 lead with 1:56 remaining, then survived when Baltimore kicker Steven Hauschka missed his late FG try wide. The NFC North-leading Vikings are now 6-0 (first time since 2003) and looking to move to 7-0 for the first time since 2000 (made NFC championship game that year). To get to 7-0, the Vikings will have to win at Pittsburgh, the defending Super Bowl champs, which have won three straight since a 1-2 start and will take a seven-game regular season home winning streak into the contest (nine in a row counting two wins in LY's postseason). Favre has completed 69.7% for 1,347 yards with 12 TDs and just two INTs and is third in the NFL with a 109.5 QB rating. AP's 618 rushing yards leads the NFL (seven TDs), as the combo has allowed Minnesota to average 31.5 PPG (2nd-highest in the NFL), having scored at least 27 points in all six games in 2009. While the Steelers are not running the ball like Pittsburgh teams of the past for the second straight season (rank 15th in the NFL at 107.0 YPG), check out Big Ben's numbers. He's completing 72.5% for 1,887 yards (No.2 in the NFL at 314.5 YPG) with 10 TDs and six INTs (104.5 QB rating is right behind Favre). Ward is No€. 1 in yards receiving (599), tied for first in receptions (41) and leads the NFL with 10 catches for 20-plus yards. The team's other Super Bowl MVP, Holmes, has 28 catches (15.6 YPC) plus TE Miller has 34 catches with four TDs. Let's get to the defenses. The Steelers allow 275.2 YPG (3rd) while the Vikings allow 341.8 YPG. Pittsburgh allows 74.5 YPG on the ground (2nd) while the Vikings allow 93.5 YPG. Pittsburgh's pass D allows 201.0 YPG (58.4%) while Minnesota's allows 248.0 YPG (64.9%). Safety Troy Polamalu is back for Pittsburgh but Minnesota CB Antoine Winfield suffered a sprained right foot in the second quarter vs Baltimore and may miss here. Bottom line is this. The Vikings are 6-0 but they've only out-gained TWO of six opponents (the Browns and 49ers), while the Steelers have out-gained all SIX of their opponents. Note that Pittsburgh just out-gained the Browns 543-197 (Minnesota out-gained them just 310-268), who have lost 11 of their last 12 games. The Rams, who have lost 16 straight games out-gained the Vikings 400-377 and the Lions, who have lost 22 of their last 23 matched the Vikings (265 yards to 265) in Week 2. My point is the Vikings are 'ripe' for a loss. I expected them to lose last week to the Ravens and won with the Ravens as my 25* Underdog GOY. I'm upping the ante in Week 7. Unlike the Broncos, Colts and Saints, the Vikings haven't been putting opponents away week after week. Minnesota could (should?) have lost to the 49ers, could have lost to the Packers and last week 'escaped' vs the Ravens, who had 4th-quarter scoring drives of 75, 73 and 33 yards before driving 41 yards and then missing a game-wining FG. Minnesota's "luck runs out" vs the defending champs and it won't be close! NFL 26* Pit Steelers.

pjoyce5893 · Oct 23, 2009

Randall The Handle

NFL
Season To Date (Since August 2009) 16-12-0 +9.32 Units

KANSAS CITY +1.89 over San Diego PINNACLE

Yeah, the Chiefs are not exactly a good football team but they’re coming on a bit and one win can do wonders to team morale. You can double that when that wins comes on the road. The Chiefs went into Washington and beat the Skins 14-6 after an OT loss to the Boys the previous week. They’ve already played Philly, Baltimore, the Giants and the aforementioned Cowboys and that’s a pretty decent quartet. They seem to be getting better with each week and as Matt Cassell becomes more comfortable in his new digs with his new teammates, he, too, is becoming more confident and definitely more dangerous. The best news is the heartless Chargers will come to town and this is a team that is simply unworthy of being road chalk. The defense is about as soft as it gets and their pass rush is probably the lamest the league has to offer. The Chargers allow the opposing QB to stand in the pocket and find open receiver after open receiver. In it’s biggest game of the year last week on Monday Night Football, the Chargers allowed two punt returns for TD’s, they allowed 34 points to the Broncos while scoring just three of their own in the second half. A close looks shows the Chargers two wins have come against Oakland in week one by the slimmest of margins (24-20) and a win over Miami in week 3 in the game that the Fish lost Chad Pennington and had to rely on Chad Henne in relief making his NFL debut. Bottom line is the Chargers are a soft, gutless, unmotivated team playing on the road on a short week in a very difficult setting. The Chiefs are coming on and while the +4½ points are tempting, the money line offers up way too much value to pass up on. Play: Kansas City +1.89 (Risking 2 units).

MIAMI +6 over New Orleans PINNACLE

My philosophy of selling high applies to this game, as the Saints stock is soaring through the roof after its dismantling of the Giants last week. That easy win over what was considered a top quality team, combined with the Saints perfect 6-0 record, has the Saints popularity and expectations as high as its ever been. The oddsmakers know it’s hard to bet against New Orleans and it’s very easy to pull the trigger on them laying less than a converted TD. That’s an enticing line for the betting public, laying –6 and not –7. Don’t get me wrong, the Saints are the straight goods and look almost unbeatable with a slew of talented receivers and a QB, Drew Brees that just might be the best in the business. However, there’s always a right time to “step in” against a team and this is that time to go against the Saints after its well-documented blowout of the Giants. Enter the Dolphins, whose style is perfect for this enemy. You all might remember that Monday Night game a few weeks back when the Dolphins entertained the Colts and held the ball for 45 minutes. They eventually lost that game by four points but they dominated everything but the scoreboard. The Saints and the Colts are extremely similar in styles but now Chad Henne has a whole lot more experience and he’s really beginning to impress. Miami’s wildcat offense is wickedly good and even when 22 guys on the field and the whole coaching staff knows it’s coming, they still can’t stop it. Anyway, the bottom line here is that the time is right to go against the Saints and these Dolphins are the perfect fit. I’m calling the upset but will accept the points. Note: Wait until just before game time to wager on this one because we’re sure to get a better number. I’ll update late Sunday morning to the actual price but I expect it’ll be +6½ or +6 and plus money. Play: Miami +6 (Risking 2.12 units).

pizza · Oct 23, 2009

LANG on PHILLY DAILY NEWS LIVE

EAGLES UNDER 37.5
FRISCO +3.5
AZ +7
BEARS +1.5 (two for the money)

WINNERS_ONLY · Oct 23, 2009

WUNDERDOG
Complimentary Picks and Analysis
Game: Minnesota at Pittsburgh (Sunday 10/25 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Minnesota +6 (-110)
The Steelers by default are going to be facing pointspreads that are juiced all season simply because they are the reigning Superbowl Champs. We faded them successfully last week and it worked out and I'm doing the same this week. The Vikings come into this game at 6-0 and I don't remember a 6-0 team ever getting this many points in a game. I went back to 1989 and found just one time a 6-0 team played as an underdog, and it was back in 2006 when the Colts were a 2.5 point dog to the Broncos in Denver. The Colts went on to win that game outright. The fact is that 6-0 teams are 5-2 ATS as a favorite of 4.5 points or less, including the one time they have been posted as an underdog. While the Steelers have won three straight, they have covered just once and on the season, going 1-5 ATS thus far. Despite playing a schedule of teams that are a combined 11-23 on the season, Pittsburgh has outscored these teams by a grand total of just 28 points. You can take any two teams the Steelershave played to date, and they don't have more wins than the Vikings! This is a statement game for the Vikings, because if they knock off the Steelers in Pittsburgh, they will be in the conversation for the best team in the league. Brett Favre has found a comfortable home in Minnesota, mainly because he has Adrian Peterson who is a constant threat out of the backfield to break off a long one. Pittsburgh has become a pass-happy team (not good), and the Vikings have 21 sacks on the season and will be putting pressure on Big Ben. We have seen that take its toll before on the Steelers' offense. This one sets up to be a field-goal-type game (my computer matchup agrees), so getting this many points is certainly an overlay and bonus. I'll ride with the red-hot Vikings here.

FGators · Oct 23, 2009

Colin Cowherd's Sizzling Seven (21-28 on the year, 3-4 last week)

Vikings at Steelers (-4)
Jets at Raiders (+6)
Falcons (+4) at Cowboys
Cardinals at Giants (-7)

Mister1 · Oct 24, 2009

The Boys Underdog GOW

San Francisco 49ers vs Houston Texans
Take: San Francisco 49ers +3+100

STACKSONDECK · Oct 24, 2009

dover picks

colts 4 units
philly 2 units
jets 1 unit
saints 1 unit

over 46 no/mia 3 units
under 46 ind/stl 2 units
over 43 sd/kc 2 units

ytd ats 13-7 plus 8 units
totals 8-1 plus 6 units

liger420 · Oct 24, 2009

Al demarco
15 dimer
cowboys

FGators · Oct 24, 2009

Dave Blezow (NY Post) (11-3-1 Last Week)

Jets (-6) over RAIDERS: Unlike the above pick, this one is counterintuitive, since most of the evidence points to the Raiders as moderate home ‘dogs. The Jets were a disastrous 0-4 on the West Coast last season, including an unfathomable 16-13 overtime loss in Oakland, where they have done badly historically. Still, just expect this will be the week the Jets rebound on both sides, with a shutdown game from Rex Ryan’s defense and a better performance by Mark Sanchez.

CHIEFS (+41/2) over Chargers: San Diego won both of last year’s meetings by one point, 20-19 in San Diego (the game in which Herm Edwards went for two instead of the tie with 23 seconds to go) and 22-21 in KC. Matt Cassel (6 TDs, 0 INTs in his last four games) can get it done vs. a shoddy Chargers defense.

Colts (-13) over RAMS: The Colts have won 14 in a row and the Rams have lost 16 in a row. So the question isn’t who, but by how much? With Peyton Manning & Co. off a bye and safety Bob Sanders and corner Kelvin Hayden possibly returning, how much is probably going to be a lot.

Bears (+1) over BENGALS: Even though they lost 21-14, came away impressed with the Bears on Sunday night in Atlanta. Like the way Jay Cutler is utilizing his speedsters Devin Hester and Garrett Wolfe, and believe Matt Forte will score more often than he fumbles. Not totally sold on the Bengals, despite their 4-2 mark.

Packers (-9) over BROWNS: Browns have covered three weeks in a row, but a bad flu bug is going through their locker room this week. If the Pack can protect Aaron Rodgers, this should be a double-digit victory without much trouble.

STEELERS (-41/2) over Vikings: Amazingly, Brett Favre has thrown just two interceptions in the Vikes’ 6-0 start, the fewest in any six-game period in his career. He’ll have to remain nearly perfect to keep up with Ben Roethlisberger, who should pick up torching the Vikings defense where Joe Flacco left off.

Buccaneers (+141/2) over Patriots

(in London): Even after the Pats’ 59-0 wipeout of the Titans, they are averaging only 12.4 more points per game than the winless Bucs, and giving up 12.8 fewer. Both of those are below this spread. Question is, will the long trip and strange surroundings make for a closer game? The first two NFL games in London ended in margins of three (Giants 13, Dolphins 10) and five points (Saints 37, Chargers 32).

49ers (+3) over TEXANS: Love this spot for the 49ers, who have had two weeks to stew over a 45-10 home loss to the Falcons. Not only that, they get Frank Gore back, and No. 1 pick Michael Crabtree will be making his NFL debut at receiver.

PANTHERS (-7) over Bills: Ryan Fitzpatrick was only 10-of-25 in the win at the Jets, which was built on six Bills interceptions. Jake Delhomme has thrown 10 picks, but it’s not wise to base a selection solely on the expectation of turnovers.

DOLPHINS (+6) over Saints: New Orleans has thrived with a strong pass rush and ball-hawking secondary to get to 5-0, but the Wildcat will mute those strengths and identify weaknesses. Drew Brees has thrown for 362 yards and no TDs in two games vs. the AFC East (Bills, Jets), and 1,038 yards and 13 TDs in the other three games. It’s the Peter Tocco/Odd Couple pick of the week (3-2).

Falcons (+4) over COWBOYS: The Cowboys need the game more and will be rested off their bye, but top to bottom the Falcons seem to be the better team, and are too good a buy to pass up at more than a field goal.

MONDAY NIGHT

REDSKINS (+7) over Eagles: Jim Zorn and Jason Campbell both should benefit from management’s decision to have Sherm Lewis call the offensive plays. And with the ‘Skins allowing just 16 points a game, the full touchdown seems enough at home.

BEST BETS: Packers, Colts, Panthers.

FGators · Oct 24, 2009

Hank Gola (NY Daily News Handicapper)

Cardinals
Raiders
Steelers
Patriots
Colts
Packers
Chiefs
Saints
Falcons
Bills
49ers

CHANCE · Oct 24, 2009

--- hilton contest ---
----------------------------

top 5 most picked (15-15 ats) / top pick: (2-4 ats)
indy (140)
pitt (120)
gb (116)
atl (95)
miami & chic (92)

---------------------------------

largest difference between teams
indy (124)
gb (100)
pitt (74)
chic (50)
oak & nyg (38)

-----------------------------------

top contestant(s) (3 tied at 22-8 ats)
pitt / sf / oak / nor / dall
indy / chic / pitt / buff / phila
cincy / pitt / oak / miami / atl
(5 of top 6 have pitt)

-------------------------------------------

bottom feeder(s) (8-22 ats)
chic / clev / ne / oak / atl
(4 of bottom 5 have pitt)

-------------------------------------------

teams picked the fewest times (7-4 s/u & ats)
(picked 25 or less times)

rams (16) / clev (16)

stuckforever · Oct 24, 2009

Steven Budin-CEO
SUNDAY'S PICK

25 DIME

PITTSBURGH

goldencontender · Oct 24, 2009

Sunday NFL system Club Play GC-

On Sunday the system club play is on the under in the Houston/SF game. Rotation numbers 425/6 at 1:00 eastern. What we want to do in this one is play the under when we have a team like the 49/ERs that allowed 30 or more points in their last game before the bye week. If the total is 44 or higher these teams play under almost 90% of the time. I look for SF to play much better today on defense and slow down the Houston offense. Take the under for 3 today at 44 or higher.On SUNDAY I have 3 BIG PLAYS. Those with me the last 2 Sundays cleaned up with Seattle a 41-0 winner. Then last week with Oakladn an outright 14 point dog winner! Today I have a DOUBLE SYSTEM NFL GAME OF THE MONTH. Another big dog from a 23-3 system and a solid off shore steam play.On Saturday we cashed the BIG 12 GOY. Jump on and end your week with the cash. Take the Under in the SF. at Houston game.BOL GC

fly73 · Oct 24, 2009

Don Wallace Sports
San Francisco +3 over Houston
Chicago +1.5 over Bengals
New York -7 over Arizona
New Orleans -6.5 over Miami
Vikings +6 over Pittsburgh

fly73 · Oct 24, 2009

CAPPERS ACCESS
Chargers
Steelers
Bears
Giants

fly73 · Oct 24, 2009

Sixth Sense
BEST BETS

YTD 20-16 +7.20%

3% SAN DIEGO -4.5
3% NY JETS -6
3% DALLAS -4
3% MINNESOTA/PITTSBURGH OVER 45.5
3% NEW ORLEANS/MIAMI OVER 47

fly73 · Oct 24, 2009

Erin Renning leans from radio show:

PIT over
NE over
SF +
NYJ under
MIA +
DAL over
ARI +

fly73 · Oct 24, 2009

good times and jada,,,, fu( 35 time postin mo fo, ) posers

Docs Sports

5 Unit Play. #122 Take Pittsburgh -4 ½ over Minnesota (Sunday 1 pm Fox) Top NFL Game of the Week. The Vikings just continue to win games but this will be their toughest test of the season playing the Steelers at Heinz Field. This is the first tough road game QB Favre and the Vikings will have in 2009 and I do not expect them to have much left in the tank. This will be the second straight physical team they will face in consecutive weeks and they should have lost to Baltimore, but got lucky with a missed field goal as time expired. Pittsburgh got backdoored last week against Cleveland but dominated the game, outgaining them 543-197 in total yardage. The Vikings are a dog for the first time this season and expect them to struggle defending the pass, as the Steelers take this game and control of the AFC North. Pittsburgh 27, Minnesota 17.

4 Unit Play. #126 Take Tampa Bay +15 over New England (Sunday 1 pm CBS) This game reminds me a lot of the Philly/Oakland game last Sunday afternoon in the Bay Area. Giving two touchdowns on the road is a recipe for disaster in the NFL and that applies again even though this one takes place in London. The Bucs have trouble stopping the run, but Patriots do not run the ball very effectively and thus most of Tampa’s weakness is neutralized. This game appears to mean more to Tampa then New England since the Glazer family own Manchester United, a powerful soccer team in England. Most of these games outside the 48 states seem to go down to the wire and the dog has covered the last two games in London. Make it three, as the Patriots win, but it is much closer then what the experts think.

4 Unit Play. #134 Take Miami +6 ½ over New Orleans (Sunday 4:15 pm Fox) The Saints have been the most impressive team thus far in 2009 and will enter this game in Miami with a perfect 5-0 record. That being said, this will be their first tough road game of the season since their first two were at Buffalo and at Philadelphia (without QB McNabb). The Fish are coming off of a bye and with a win here they can even up their record at three games apiece on the season. QB Chad Henne looked outstanding in his first action of the season against New York last game and he now gives the Dolphins a deep threat because of his strong arm. This is a perfect compliment to the Wildcat package and expect the Dolphins to own time of possession in this game. Miami wins this game straight-up and getting points in just an added bonus.

4 Unit Play. #138 Take Washington +7 over Philadelphia (Monday 8:30 pm ESPN) The Redskins needs this game or else they may have a new coach after their bye. Jim Zorn has been stripped of his play calling ability and in comes Sherman Lewis, a coach that had success with the Green Bay Packers during the 1990s. It is hard to figure that the Eagles deserve to be this big of a favorite since they just lost to the Oakland Raiders. The dog is usually the strong play on Monday Night and the talent on these teams is much closer to a ‘pick’em’ game then it is a 7-point road favorite. I do believe that Coach Zorn is liked by his players and I believe they will put forth an all-out effort this week to try and save his job. Washington quiets the critics for one week with an impressive victory at Fed Ex Field. Washington 21, Philadelphia 20.